⚾ Shohei Ohtani Home Run Probability 2025

AI-Powered Prediction & Real-Time Updates for Next Game

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Home Run Probability

📅 2025/9/19(金) 11:10

Analyzing...

Pitcher Data Analysis

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Recent Performance

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Calculating Game Probability

🎯 10 AB per HR

Expected Frequency

⚾ 2.5 Games per HR

Based on 4 AB per game

Per At-Bat

9.9%

(Base: 7.5%)

Relief: 70% RHP, 30% LHP weighted

📊 Game Probability Level

Low

0.0%

High

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Next Game

🆚 Opponent: San Francisco Giants

⚾ Starting Pitcher: Logan WebbRHP; 14W-11L ERA 3.27 WHIP 1.24 HR/9 0.65

🏟️ Date & Venue: 2025/9/19(金) 11:10; Dodger StadiumHOME

Base Rate (Full Game)

20.8%

Game Factors Adjustment

↑

20.8% → 26.8% (+6.0 points)

Full Game Probability

33.5%

📐 Detailed Calculation Method

1. Base Probability

Career HR rate: 276 HRs ÷ 3698 ABs = 7.5%

2. Pitcher HR Tendency

Logan Webb allows: 0.6 HR/9 innings

MLB Avg

1.2本/9

Logan Webb

0.6本/9

→ Impact on Ohtani: ×0.75

3. vs L/R Matchup

vs RHP: Career 10.4% (1.40x of average)

4. Recent Form

Last 10 games: 3 HRs, AVG .342 → Hot ×1.2

5. Park Factor

Venue: Dodger Stadium

🏠 Home Game Advantage: ×1.05

Neutral park: No adjustment

6. Full Game Probability

Per AB: 9.9%

3 ABs (vs Starter): 1 - (1 - 0.099)³ = 26.8%

4th AB (vs Relief):

・RHP (70%): 7.6% added

・LHP (30%): 4.5% added

Final: 33.5%

📊 Full Game Impact Factors

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vs Right-handed

×1.40

🔥

Hot Streak

×1.20

🏠

Home Game

×1.05

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Last 10 Games

🔥 HOT STREAK

Games: 10

Home Runs: 3

AVG: .342

Hits: 13

HR Rate: 7.9%

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MLB Career Stats

Career HRs: 276

Career ABs: 3,698

Career PAs: 4,293

HR Rate: 7.5%; per At-Bat

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vs LHP/RHP Stats

vs Left-Handed

LHP

HRs: 13

ABs: 211

HR Rate: 6.2%

vs Right-Handed

RHP

HRs: 38

ABs: 364

HR Rate: 10.4%

※ Data from MLB Stats API | Auto-updated every hour

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