⚾ Shohei Ohtani Home Run Probability 2025

AI-Powered Prediction & Real-Time Updates for Next Game

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Home Run Probability

📅 2026/10/15(木) 09:00

Analyzing...

Pitcher Data Analysis

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Recent Performance

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Calculating Game Probability

🎯 16 AB per HR

Expected Frequency

⚾ 4.0 Games per HR

Based on 4 AB per game

Per At-Bat

6.2%

(Base: 7.3%)

Relief: 70% RHP, 30% LHP weighted

📊 Game Probability Level

Low

0.0%

High

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Next Game

🆚 Opponent: Milwaukee Brewers

⚾ Starting Pitcher: Robert GasserLHP; 5W-5L ERA 3.87 WHIP 1.19 HR/9 1.24

🏟️ Date & Venue: 2026/10/15(木) 09:00; UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumHOME

Base Rate (Full Game)

20.3%

Game Factors Adjustment

↓

20.3% → 17.5% (-2.9 points)

Full Game Probability

22.1%

📐 Detailed Calculation Method

1. Base Probability

Career HR rate: 310 HRs ÷ 4253 ABs = 7.3%

2. Pitcher HR Tendency

Robert Gasser allows: 1.2 HR/9 innings

MLB Avg

1.2本/9

Robert Gasser

1.2本/9

→ Impact on Ohtani: ×1

3. vs L/R Matchup

vs LHP: Career 6.7% (0.92x of average)

4. Recent Form

Last 10 games: 0 HRs, AVG .179 → Normal

5. Park Factor

Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Neutral park: No adjustment

6. Full Game Probability

Per AB: 6.2%

3 ABs (vs Starter): 1 - (1 - 0.062)³ = 17.5%

4th AB (vs Relief):

・RHP (70%): 4.3% added

・LHP (30%): 5.5% added

Final: 22.1%

📊 Full Game Impact Factors

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vs Left-handed

×1.00

❄️

Cold Streak

×0.85

📈

Last 10 Games

Games: 10

Home Runs: 0

AVG: .179

Hits: 7

HR Rate: 0.0%

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MLB Career Stats

Career HRs: 310

Career ABs: 4,253

Career PAs: 4,947

HR Rate: 7.3%; per At-Bat

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vs LHP/RHP Stats

vs Left-Handed

LHP

HRs: 12

ABs: 179

HR Rate: 6.7%

vs Right-Handed

RHP

HRs: 18

ABs: 344

HR Rate: 5.2%

※ Data from MLB Stats API | Auto-updated every hour

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